Signal
I have never felt more anxiety, stress, and excitement than when building something from nothing into something people might use. I often ask myself what happens if this fails, or if no one ever comes back.
In the 0 to 1 phase, data is scarce and clarity is rare. There are no reliable metrics yet, and product market fit does not exist. It becomes difficult to tell what is signal and what is noise.
This note does not offer the answer. It offers a way of thinking that may help you or your team move faster toward something that actually adds value and changes the current behavior of how people do things.
Let's break this down:
Today, users do X.
In the future, they will do Y.
The fastest path there is Z.
Today
This is how people interact with the world right now. Not what they say they want. What they actually do.
How they use AI.
How they shop.
How they stay fit.
How they connect they invest.
Future
This is how what you build could add value and change how they shop, stay fit, invest and more.
It is not a list of features.
It is the vision of how their everyday behavior will change once they use the product.
Path
This is likely the most important part. Identify the simplest thing you or the team can do today that moves people from what they do now toward what you want them to do in the future.
How Uber changed what people did:
Today: People wave for taxis or planned rides in advance.
Future: Tap a button and a car shows up.
Path: Show nearby cars already in motion the moment the app opens.